“So we have an assassin yelling in Turkish and Arabic with threats of retribution for Aleppo while giving the one finger jihadi salute. I think that senior Turkish security official is trying to throw the Russian wolfhound off the scent. I also think the trail will lead to the FSA/Nusra jihadis currently enjoying the benevolence of the West and the Turks. As Putin said, “The killers will feel it.” I can hear my old friend, master sergeant Al Rivers in that booming rebel voice of his, “The shit’s on, good buddy!”
Those expecting this assassination to be
another Gavrilo Princip spark of the type that ignited the European powder keg and World War One 103 years ago are going to be disappointed — Putin and Erdogan have both affirmed the killer’s goal was to destroy Turkish-Russian detente. Since last November if not earlier, Putin has thus far deftly evaded ‘let’s you and him fight’ schemes to embroil Russia in direct combat with the Turks, despite the Turkish offensive toward Al-Bab and Ankara’s illegal under international law seizure of a ‘buffer zone’ to block a Kurdish state in northern Syria (which also secures supply lines for the so-called ‘moderate’ rebels opposed to Assad if not ISIS from getting cut off by the Kurds).
The real blowback from this killing, we suspect will come next year, when President-elect Donald J. Trump takes office. In a tweeted response to the slaying, Trump hinted at the need for ‘new thinking’ — which we interpret to mean reevaluating whether an increasingly unstable, Islamized and ISIS/PKK-violence plagued Turkey ought to remain in NATO. Despite
the barely concealed sick neocon glee and endorsement of takfirists’ celebrations of Ambassador Karlov’s death, if a rogue Turkish cop can shoot a Russian ambassador in the back next time it may be the turn of an American or German diplomat. The hubris of Atlanticists who will be increasingly unmasked as globalists that they’ll never pay a political price for their support of keeping an increasingly neo-Ottoman Turkey in NATO and backing a pathetic, spineless Merkel/EU(SSR) policy of allowing the Sultan to blackmail Europe with mass migration is badly mistaken.
At the same time, the efforts of Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn to open back channel diplomacy with the Turks prior to joining the Administration as White House National Security Adviser have resulted in Flynn advocating the extradition of CIA asset Muslim cleric Fetullah Gulen to Turkey for his alleged role in the mid-July putsch and other crimes. It remains likely that Erdogan, true to character, will exploit Amb. Karlov’s murder to continue purging the Turkish police and security services, while maximizing Ankara’s bargaining position between Washington and Moscow.
Nonetheless, if an ex-cop with an axe to grind for being purged and an outdated police ID can slip past either incompetent or complicit security at an Ankara gallery to murder a Russian Ambassador, the Sultan and his own children cannot consider themselves safe. Especially if the reports are true that this policeman worked with Erdoğan’s personal security detail in the past. The examples of the late
Benazhir Bhutto of Pakistan and Rajiv Ghandi of India spring to mind, and surely have occurred to ‘the turd in the hummus bowl’ since July — that next time there’s a coup, the plotters will start by having a security detail member take him out.
On a related note, if the Sultan wishes to atone for his previous sponsorship of ISIS before the terrorists his family and supporters nurtured ruin Turkey’s struggling economy and diplomatic reputation, Erdogan had better demonstrate to the Americans and Russians alike a willingness to shed Turkish blood to defeat ISIS. Otherwise the ‘go slow’ and half-assed neo-Ottoman approach of trying wherever possible to persuade Daeshbags to stand down and melt away back to the Turkish border, (rather than killing them) will be supplanted by harsher measures. And those will involve the gloves coming off and massed U.S. and Russian firepower to slaughter IS all the way to Raqqa and Deir Ez Zor, respectively, with Egyptian Army troops perhaps coming in a UNSC-approved Syria peacekeeping role.
As Vineyard of the Saker blog contributor Larchmonter445 wrote back in mid-November, Gen. Flynn’s contacts with the Turks were about establishing whom to trust in Ankara and the basis for negotiations when Trump assumes office on January 20:
“To destroy Flynn and weaken Trump with the Intelligence and Military communities, the classic Washington technique of long articles with many negative anonymous sourced comments was used, carefully crafted headlines and paragraph headers, all designed for very negative Google Search feeds.
The latest is about Flynn and Turkish “operatives”. Sounds like they met in dark alleys or underground passageways. Maybe in some Ankara safehouse, eh?
It turns out quite differently.
But Flynn is obviously being watched closely by CIA/State Dept. They know he is doing the bidding of Trump. And for good reason, Trump needs to know which way Turkey is leaning post-coup? And how sensitive is the Kurd issue in Syria? What are the ramifications of the US and Russia working in tandem against ISIS in Syria? Will Turkey help with safe zones for refugees? Will Turkey leave Syria after the war or does it plan to resist Russia and Assad? What about NATO? What about the Uyghurs Turkey protects, and is China being forced to come with military to put down the Uyghurs inside ISIS? Will the issue of demanding Fethullah Gulen’s extradition continue? Will there be mass death penalties for the imprisoned coup participants and Gulen’s followers?
Flynn had a panoply of possible questions to be answered by the operatives from Erdogan. And the Turks would have questions they wanted answered with some hint of Trump’s positions.
The Deep State are tracking Flynn and the Turks and are now exposing his links as a professional consultant. Nothing illegal. Nothing suspicious. Nothing out of the ordinary. But it was General Flynn, Trump’s guy. Smear him.
How else would this information surface in the Washington Post except from the Deep State? And if you know the history of the Deep State, the WaPo is their first choice for all leaks, briefings in depth, exposes used to undermine officials who cross them or who point to the Deep States’ misdeeds or failures. You won’t find Sy Hersh’s articles in WaPo.
The point of the articles about General Flynn was to shame him, to put down his personality, his lack of obedience to the Obama regime. He was investigated for giving Intel to foreign nations, we are told. He shared Intelligence with the Pakistanis, we are told. Read how his fellow generals talk about him.
Imagine if the Deep State decided that Intelligence should never be shared. Well, the U.S. would have no allies. No nation joins a war effort without Intelligence for their military. Flynn, whose entire thirty-plus year career has been in Intelligence understands that. And he did it. Proudly, he related to the investigators, and it all was dropped except the record and the reporting of it now.
The investigation was actually to cast a black mark on Flynn to be found later, by the uninformed, at the most sensitive of times. In this case, it is to weaken Flynn, to weaken Trump.
“Mike Flynn shares Intel. Mike Flynn acts without checking with what the Deep State wants.” It turns out that Flynn did get approval for all he did. But he simply did the professional thing. He acted in behalf of his specialty, his profession, his oath of duty and the American people who paid him to protect America.
There is something to be gained by studying this meeting with Turkey’s operatives. Flynn’s meeting signals that Trump will not likely arm the Kurds with heavy weapons. That would drive Turkey into the Russian-Iranian embrace fully. A practical solution to defeating ISIS and AQ and ending the Syrian war has to avoid losing Turkey. Trump is not going to be trying to coup anyone. His policy is no regime changes. He also does not like these secret wars of the CIA. If there is to be war, he wants it fought by the military, with a plan for victory. Principally, Trump’s wars will be like President Eisenhower’s. There were none for eight years.
The warmongers and neocons of the Deep State and surface government will try to work over all the Trump nominees in the security and policy arena. Trump has refused to listen to any of them, though a few have been invited in to the goings on. However, we don’t know who is talking to Trump and who is talking to the various panels of experts that will advise who they think he should select. So a few neocons and warmongers like John Bolton and General Keane have made it into Trump Tower. But he eschewed them all these years and throughout the campaign. I doubt they will have any role in policy. He considers them failures.
Expect very deep shakeouts at CIA and State. I think Flynn will use fellow military he knows and trusts as deputies and undersecretaries. General Keith Kellogg and General Ronald Burgess are likely for important positions.
There has to be this cleaning out of the subterranean world of the Deep State. If President Carter got rid of 800 officers when Stansfield Turner tried cleaning out the CIA, I’m betting there are 1500 officers in the CIA who need retirement now.
Speaking of my Swiss White Russian Floridian friend The Saker, he had this to say in reaction to the horrible shooting death of Amb. Karlov:
“When such an event occurs it is also important to ask cui bono – whom does it benefit?
I see absolutely no imaginable reason why Erdogan would want the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara, but I can easily imagine a long list of reasons why he would not want that to happen at all. Some will correctly say that the fall of Aleppo is a humiliating defeat for Turkey and Erdogan, and I agree. But I would remind everybody that Erdogan clearly had a deal going with the Russians and the Iranians when he moved his forces across the border and occupied northern Syria. There is *no way* he would have risked such a move against the will of Moscow and Tehran. So what was this deal? We will probably never know, but it clearly included a provision which limited Turkey’s actions to a narrow strip in the north. If that hypothesis is correct, then Aleppo would have to be considered outside the “Turkish sphere of interest” in Syria, at least by the tripartite Turkish-Iranian-Russian understanding. Did Erdogan know that Aleppo would fall and would fall so fast? Probably not. It appears that Erdogan got outmaneuvered by the Russians and the Iranians. But he most definitely had better options to retaliate against the liberation of Aleppo than to have the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara. The fact is that the Turks did precious little when Aleppo was liberated, at most they helped the Russian evacuate part of the “good terrorists”.
Even if Erdogan is a lunatic, he is smart enough to understand that if he has the Russian Ambassador murdered in Ankara NATO will do nothing to protect him and that the Russians can fire a cruise missile right into his bedroom window. Erdogan might be crazy, but he is clearly not *that* crazy.
Finally, let’s remember the disastrous consequences for Turkey following the shooting down of the Russian SU-24 and the fact that, by numerous corroborated accounts, the Russian intelligences services saved Erdogan, probably literally, by warning him of the coup against him.
So, for all these reasons, Erdogan is not on my current list of suspects. Never say never, new facts might come to light, especially with a maniac like Erdogan, but right now I will assume that he has nothing to do with what happened.
Daesh & Co? Maybe.
Well, it is rather obvious that the Daesh & Co. had an extremely long list of reasons to want to kill a high profile Russian official. So yes, they sure had the motive. Considering how successful radical Islamist extremists have been at penetrating the Turkish deep (and not so deep) state, Daesh and Co. also had the means. As for the opportunity, the video above clearly shows that not only did Mevlut Mert Aydintas have the time to shoot the Russian Ambassador many times (I counted 9 shots), but after that he still had the time to just stand there and scream all sorts of slogans about Syria, Aleppo and God. While we don’t know all the details yet, this is already very strong evidence that security at this event was dismal.
Gulen, the CIA, Obama & Co? Maybe.
Yes, they are also on my list of suspects. The Gulenists have nothing to lose, the CIA has gone crazy with anger and fear at the election of Trump, and the Obama Administration is full of angry, offended, deeply vindicative and otherwise plain nasty characters who would love to trigger a new crisis between Russia and Turkey or make the Russian pay in some way for humiliating the AngloZionist Empire in Aleppo. Keep in mind that this is exactly how the CIA always kills foreign dignitaries: by subcontracting the murder to a local fanatic so as to preserve what they call “plausible deniability”.
During the Cold War the Soviets and the Americans had an unwritten understanding that “we don’t kill each other”. It was never formally mentioned or otherwise acknowledged, but I assure you that it was real: neither side wanted an open ended escalation of assassinations and counter-assassinations. But today’s CIA is a pathetic joke compared to the CIA of the Cold War, and with hodge-podge of mediocre dimwits now in the Executive branch I would not put it past some idiot in Langley to approve of the murder of a Russian Ambassador. Besides, if the Americans were crazy and reckless enough to attempt to overthrow Erdogan, why would they not try to murder a Russian Ambassador?
“THE assassination of Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov was masterminded by Nato secret services, a top Vladimir Putin ally has claimed.
Karlov was gunned down by a member of Turkey’s anti-riot police while attending an art exhibition opening in the capital Ankara.
Killer Mevlut Mert Altintas, 22, was later shot dead after standing over Karlov’s body claiming it was for those suffering in Aleppo.
Today Senator Frantz Klintsevich, deputy chairman of the Russian upper chamber’s defence and security committee, said: “It was a planned action,” the Mail Online reported.
“Everyone knew that he was going to attend this photo exhibition. It can be ISIS, or the Kurdish army which tries to hurt Erdogan.
“But may be – and it is highly likely – that representatives of foreign NATO secret services are behind it.
“What has happened is a true provocation, a challenge. It is a challenge for Russia.”
Footage taken after Altintas gunned down Karlov showed him chanting: “Do not forget Aleppo! Do not forget Syria!”
He also shouted “Allahu akbar,” the Arabic phrase for “God is great” and continued in Arabic: “We are the descendants of those who supported the Prophet Muhammad, for jihad.”
This post is also an open thread to discuss the jihadist murder of a Polish truck driver and attack on a Christmas market in Berlin, Germany, as well as
the wounding of three Muslims by gunfire at a mosque in Zurich, Switzerland, which also happened on Monday December 19, 2016 (Team Rogue Money’s resident numerologists take note). As some of the more astute and Twitter saavy RogueMoney readers may have noticed, certain (ahem) troll accounts tried to spread disinfo blaming the Berlin attack on a Chechen citizen of the Russian Federation, instead of the Pakistani man who was later identified as the perp. The Russia Analyst will have more to say about these networked Cold War 2.0 disinfo waging trolls for the dirty deep state soon, after the holidays.