The year opened with Russia and Turkey as enemies, exchanging economic blows and locked in proxy warfare across Syria in the aftermath of Turkey’s treacherous shoot down of a Russian SU-24 bomber in November 2015. 2016 closes with Turkish president turned despotic strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan accusing Washington and its allies of supporting not only the Kurdish militants of the PKK but also the Islamic State terrorists, plus rumors of Russian air strikes in support of Turkey’s troops struggling to make gains against Daesh at al-Bab.
As the Russia Analyst predicted as far back as August 7, 2015, the Obama Administration would eventually try to make Erdogan the fall guy for the spectacular rise of ISIS, only to have the Sultan blame Washington in reply. We also predicted along with the rest of team RogueMoney and some friends of RM such as Dr. Jim Willie and Joseph P. Farrell, that Turkey would pivot East — as the alternative would be winding up ‘on the menu’ with its own territorial integrity in question due to the Kurdish issue. We just did not envision it occurring in this way, with the Russian-Turkish-Iranian troika talking about a nationwide ceasefire across Syria in 2017, and the U.S. State Department and EUnuchs pointedly NOT invited to the peace table…
This is an open thread to discuss the assassination of Russian Ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov on Monday December 19 by a reported (ex?) Turkish police officer, Mevlut Mert Altintas, in Ankara.
The Russia Analyst was saddened but not surprised by the news that the infamous Turkish Deep State and its not so hidden backers, humiliated by the defeat of their jihadi proxies in Aleppo, would create a provocation to sabotage the negotiations between the Kremlin and the turd in the hummus bowl, aka Anatolian dictator Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. However, we were expecting an incident similar to the shoot down of the SU-24 bomber by allegedly rogue, Gulenist-inspired elements of the Turkish military last November, not the assassination of a Russian chief of diplomatic mission on camera. The brazenness of the attack and the killer’s rant about Aleppo as well as making the single finger salute of ISIS and other assorted jihadist terrorists in Syria before he was (conveniently) shot dead by police have already fueled speculation in Moscow as to who or what forces are ultimately behind the perp…
Surprise! After blustering that Turkish armed forces entered Syria to topple ‘the tyrant Assad’, the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has backed off under pressure from Russia. As RT.com reports:
“The aim of the Euphrates Shield Operation [in northern Syria] is not any country or person, but only terrorist organizations,”Erdogan said Thursday, as quoted by the Hurryiet Daily News.
“No one should doubt this issue that we have uttered over and over, and no one should comment on it in another fashion or try to derail it,” he added.
According to Reuters, about 200 Canadian commandos are actively involved into the ground operation to recapture Mosul from ISIS rule. According to Michael Rouleau, Canadian Special Forces Commander, troops are engaged in a ‘substantial’ number of clashes with terrorists which continues to rise.
As the European Union (EU) continues to crack up with Brexit potentially being followed by the first steps toward Italexit and Austria-exit this winter, the European Parliament attacked what it called Russian propaganda this week in an emotionally debated resolution.
Like most activities of the chamber in Strasbourg, France, however the resolution which passed despite more abstentions and opposition than votes in favor, is meaningless — except to demonstrate to Moscow and the world that a significant bloc of MEPs, mostly hailing from the former Soviet bloc states bordering Russia, can shamelessly conflate ‘Russian propaganda’ against the EU with the beheadings, tortures and bloodthirsty calls to jihadist violence of the Islamic State (see the text for yourself here).
Neocons like The Washington Post‘s Josh Rogin were furious on Monday when they found out that President-elect Donald J. Trump was hosting Hawaii Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, an outspoken critic of U.S. meddling in Syria. After the meeting, Mrs. Gabbard, a Hawaii Army National Guard veteran, indicated her support for cooperating with the new Administration on issues where they can cooperate, such as opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP – aka the Toilet Paper Protocols) which Trump declared will be killed off by his executive order upon assuming office.
Even though there’s yet to be an ‘October Surprise’ incident of actual combat or collision between U.S. and Russian air forces over Syria, that won’t stop the pro-Hillary Deep State from pushing the next best thing: close encounters in the skies over the war torn country. Where, let the Russia Analyst remind you, the Russians operate at the invitation of the internationally recognized government in Damascus, whereas the U.S. has no mandate under international law to be present.
While President Barack Hussein Obama convened a ‘war cabinet’ to discuss the fading prospect of the lame duck Commander in Chief ordering strikes against Russian-defended Assad government troops on Friday, Vice President Joe Biden (father to the ‘ex’ cocaine addict Burisma Holdings in Ukraine executive Hunter Biden) and the CIA declared a cyberwar against Russia in the press. The U.S. Department of Defense meanwhile, launched Tomahawk cruise missiles with Obama’s authorization at alleged Yemeni radar sites that were used in missile attacks against a UAE military transport and the guided missile destroyer, the USS Mason.
The only problem with the stated rationale for now direct U.S. intervention in Yemen? The Saleh loyalist Yemenis and the Houthis insist the attempted missile strikes on the USS Mason never happened, and the Americans made the incident up to justify intervening on behalf of their failing Saudi allies. Was the incident in which the Navy says at least two anti-ship missiles fell into the sea real, or was it a false flag/faked attack like the infamous ‘North Vietnamese gun boat assaults on the USS Maddox’ that led to 1964’s Gulf of Tonkin resolution?
The Russians have had enough of Washington’s threats to attack Syrian Arab Army units — while claiming they will avoid deliberately striking Russian forces stationed in the country. The Russian Ministry of Defense sent out Major General Igor Konashenkov on Thursday, October 6, 2016 to warn the ‘hotheads’ of the CIA and Pentagon, who have previously been accused by Moscow’s Foreign Ministry of undermining peace talks between Sergey Lavrov and John Kerry, of several facts…
It might just turn out to be the ultimate Mandela Effect. On September 11, 2016, at the top of the 11pm WABC-7 news broadcast, millions of New Yorkers remember hearing Joe Torres announce the death of Hillary Clinton. But then, all of a sudden, she wasn’t dead. Or was she somewhere in-between? (Photo of freaky horse thanks to WheelHorseForum.com)
Alexandr Dugin may not be ‘Putin’s brain’ as some have called him, but he remains an influential figure in Moscow. Dugin’s Katehon think tank and Tsargrad TV‘s patron, ‘God’s oligarch’ Konstantin Malofeev, is quite connected in what we would call Orthodox Christian-patriotic ‘Kremlin circles’.
The Russia Analyst had intended to write a short Syraq SITREP regarding whether the fragile ceasefire deal struck between Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov would hold. As with Friday’s news that CIA, Turkish, Saudi and Qatari-backed ‘moderate’ ‘Free Syrian Army’ jihadists cursed and threatened American special forces as infidel pig-dog occupiers, our analyses keep getting overtaken by events on the ground. As one astute commenter to our post from late Friday night/early Saturday morning observed, the evidence supporting Dr. Jim Willie’s assertion that the CIA’s jihadists are at war with the Pentagon’s Kurdish proxies (while not killing U.S. soldiers…just yet) keeps piling up.
While New Yorkers in the Guerrilla’s home town were talking about the (conveniently timed) IED blasts that injured at least 29 people in Manhattan Saturday night, across town the United Nations Security Council was convening in a closed door session. According to Russian AND (post)Western media, Moscow’s envoy to the UN Vitaly Churkin stopped just short of accusing the U.S. of deliberately killing Syrian soldiers in support of ISIS. But he also questioned exactly WHO is in charge in Washington, the civilian leadership at the White House, or the Pentagon and CIA?
The 19th century British Prime Minister Lord Palmerston infamously quipped that “Britain has no permanent allies, only permanent interests”. This quote is often forgotten by advocates of the eternal U.S.-UK Special Relationship which partially soured over Tony Blair’s subservience to George W. Bush and President Obama’s meddling in the June Brexit vote of the British people, which backfired. The equivalent expression in Russian to Lord Palmerston’s quip is equally terse, “Russia has no allies but Her Army and Navy”.
It is a fact that nations historically sharing Orthodox Christianity and liberated through great Russian sacrifices, such as Bulgaria or Montenegro, have elites hostile toward Moscow, notwithstanding the latent to strong Russophilia of their populations. But at the same time, Mother Russia has also at times failed to stand with certain allies such as the early 19th or 21st century Greeks, or as Moscow’s geostrategists would put it, the Kremlin opted for realpolitik and conserving important economic or military resources to avoid overextending itself.
Last week’s decision by Russian President Vladimir Putin and his reluctant junior partner Syrian President Bashir al-Assad to essentially green light Turkey’s post-coup President Erdogan attacking U.S.-backed Kurds in northern Syria apparently represents another triumph of realpolitik over idealism. However, there are ample arguments on the other side of that coin, including legitimate questions as to just how ‘faithful’ an ally a newborn Kurdistan stretching from near the Latakia hills overlooking the Mediterranean to Iran would have proven for Russia — as opposed to the Kurds’ longtime patrons in Washington and Tel Aviv. There are also signs that Moscow is warning the Turks not to push too far into Syria as part of their long-discussed ‘buffer zone’ along the border.
This outstanding nearly eight minute video from Southfront summarizes the increasing tensions in the Donbass as well as between Ukraine and Russia. In the wake of a botched Ukrainian infiltration operation in Crimea earlier this month that left two Russian servicemen dead, Moscow is carrying out large scale summer exercises and moving powerful equipment closer to Ukraine’s borders on its own territory.
NOTE: This post was updated at 01:30 Eastern time Sunday, August 21, 2016 to better reflect the broader context of Russia, China and Iran’s closely coordinated military moves in the Mideast.
The Eurasian axis continued to broaden the cooperation among its members this week as Russia began operating out of an Iranian air base to bomb ISIS and other jihadist targets in Syria. The deployment of the Tu-22M-3s “Backfire” bombers to Nojeh Air Base outside Hamadan, Iran significantly reduces fuel costs and flight time for the crews and increases the bomb loads they can carry. It also increases the tempo of ‘carpet bombing’ strikes the Russian Air Force can carry out whenever ISIS masses to attack supply lines to Palmyra or Aleppo.
Most importantly for the Middle East and global geopolitics, Moscow and Tehran are again affirming to Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv that their alliance is real and enduring in Syria, as well as in other flashpoints like Yemen.
For thousands of years one of the greatest world powers of the West timed her yearly economic cycle by the pre-dawn August rise of her favorite star, Sirius. Not to be outdone, the new powers of the East now see that the time is ripe to make their move.